US Inflation Calculator

US Inflation at 2.3%, Consumer Prices Flat in April 2012

admin — Tue, 15 May 2012 17:21:57 +0000

American consumers got a bit of a break in April as US inflation was flat for the month, the US government reported today in Washington.

Consumer prices were unchanged in April and for the first time since December, thanks to falling energy costs. The unchanged reading followed a 0.3% increase in the previous month when gasoline and other energy items were on the rise.

US Labor Department inflation data shows that gasoline prices dropped 2.6% last month compared to March and February increases of 1.7% and 6.0%, respectively.

Food prices continue to be burdensome to consumers’ wallets, however. In February the cost of food was flat, marking the first time prices had not moved higher since July 2010. But that was not the case in March as food prices went up 0.2 percent. The increase was again matched in April.

Excluding food and energy costs which are more volatile, the so-called core US inflation rate rose 0.2 percent in April, the same as in March.

"Increases in the indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles, and apparel all contributed significantly to the April increase," the US Labor Department said in its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which is the government’s key measure of US inflation.

US inflation rose 2.3 percent over the past 12 months after rising 2.7 percent in March.

Consumer prices over the past 12 months did not top the core rate of inflation for the first time since October 2009, as core US inflation was also up 2.3 percent year-on-year. That core reading is the same as reported in the previous month. The level remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0 percent target area, although it is unlikely to change its current view that inflation remains under control for the long haul.

"Today’s report offered few surprises, and that will surely please the Fed," CNNMoney.com quoted Chris Jones, economist with TD Bank. "The last thing they want is to have to face this unsavory tradeoff between having to battle inflation and lower unemployment."

The following table provides US Labor Department inflation data ranging from September to April and on a 12-month basis.

April 2012 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent)

	Oct 2011	Nov 2011	Dec 2011	Jan 2012	Feb 2012	Mar 2012	Apr 2012	12 Month
All items	-0.1	.0	.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	.0	2.3
Food	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	.0	0.2	0.2	3.1
Food at home	0.1	-0.1	0.3	.0	.0	0.1	0.2	3.3
Food away from home	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.2	0.3	2.9
Energy	-2.0	-1.6	-1.3	0.2	3.2	0.9	-1.7	0.9
Energy commodities	-2.9	-2.1	-1.9	0.9	5.7	1.7	-2.6	3.1
Gasoline (all types)	-3.1	-2.4	-2.0	0.9	6.0	1.7	-2.6	3.2
Fuel oil	-0.5	2.7	-1.0	1.4	2.8	2.7	-1.1	0.9
Energy services	-0.4	-0.7	-0.3	-0.8	-0.8	-0.4	-0.2	-2.4
Electricity	0.4	0.4	-0.2	.0	.0	-0.8	0.2	0.6
Utility (piped) gas service	-3.0	-4.4	-0.8	-2.9	-3.4	0.9	-1.8	-11.6
All items less food, energy	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	2.3
Comm. less food, energy	-0.1	0.1	-0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	2.0
New vehicles	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	.0	0.6	0.2	0.4	2.2
Used cars and trucks	-0.6	-0.1	-0.9	-1.0	-0.2	1.3	1.5	3.5
Apparel	0.4	0.6	-0.1	0.9	-0.9	0.5	0.4	5.1
Medical care	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.4	.0	2.7
Services less energy	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	2.4
Shelter	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	2.2
Transportation	0.1	0.1	0.1	.0	-0.2	0.3	0.5	1.7
Medical care	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	.0	0.3	0.4	3.7

The US Labor Department will release May 2012 Consumer Price Index information on June 14, 2012 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Current and historic CPI data is used as the core data for this site’s Inflation Calculator.

US Inflation Climbs 2.7% as Consumer Prices Rise 0.3% in March 2012

admin — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:41:36 +0000

US inflation tamed just a bit in March and over the past twelve months as energy prices increased at a slower pace last month, the US government reported Friday in Washington. Still, the costs of food and most other goods and services went up last month to add further distress to the pocketbooks of many Americans.

Consumer prices advanced 0.3 percent in March after increasing of 0.4 percent in the previous month, US Labor Department inflation data revealed. Increases were again led by energy, followed by food.

Prices at the pump grew 1.7% last month, although that was significantly slower than the prior month’s 6.0 percent surge which had been the main driver to the biggest monthly increase in consumer prices since April 2011.

"Inflation is under control, and if we’re near the top in gas prices, even the energy inflation could go the other way," USA TODAY quoted Stuart Hoffman, chief economist of Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial, who had accurately predicted consumer prices would rise 0.3 percent. "There are still a lot of unemployed people, a lot of unused productive capacity, and wage gains are low. The runup in commodity prices, or wage gains that cause inflation, none of it is there."

There were gains in other areas, however. In February the cost of food was flat, marking the first time prices had not moved higher since July 2010. But that was not the case in March as food prices went up 0.2 percent.

Stripping out the more volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core US inflation rate rose 0.2 percent in March after increasing 0.1 percent in the prior month. Many of the government tracked core items saw higher prices as well.

"Most of the major components increased in March, with the indexes for shelter and used cars and trucks accounting for about half the total increase for all items less food and energy," the US Labor Department said in its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which is the government’s key measure of US inflation.

‘The indexes for medical care, apparel, recreation, new vehicles, and airline fares increased as well, while the indexes for tobacco and household furnishings and operations were among the few to decline in March."

US inflation rose 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis after advancing 2.9 percent in February. The 12-month rate was at 3.9 percent as recently as September.

The core US inflation rate rose 2.3 percent annually following an increase of 2.2 percent in February. The level remains higher than the Fed’s 2.0 percent target, although that is seen as temporary and it is not the main area of the Federal Reserve’s current focus.

"Inflation is going to be slowly decelerating as the energy price impulse that we’ve seen starts to fade," Bloomberg quoted Michael Carey, the chief economist for North America at Credit Agricole CIB in New York, who correctly forecasted the rise in prices. "The Fed is in wait and see mode. Inflation is not driving policy. They are more concerned about economic growth and the labor market."

The following table provides US Labor Department inflation data ranging from September to March and on a 12-month basis.

March 2012 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent)

	Sept 2011	Oct 2011	Nov 2011	Dec 2011	Jan 2012	Feb 2012	Mar 2012	12 Month
All items	0.3	-0.1	.0	.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	2.7
Food	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	.0	0.2	3.3
Food at home	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.3	.0	.0	0.1	3.6
Food away from home	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.2	3.0
Energy	2.0	-2.0	-1.6	-1.3	0.2	3.2	0.9	4.6
Energy commodities	2.7	-2.9	-2.1	-1.9	0.9	5.7	1.7	8.7
Gasoline (all types)	2.9	-3.1	-2.4	-2.0	0.9	6.0	1.7	9.0
Fuel oil	-0.7	-0.5	2.7	-1.0	1.4	2.8	2.7	5.3
Energy services	0.7	-0.4	-0.7	-0.3	-0.8	-0.8	-0.4	-1.8
Electricity	0.7	0.4	0.4	-0.2	.0	.0	-0.8	0.6
Utility (piped) gas service	0.8	-3.0	-4.4	-0.8	-2.9	-3.4	0.9	-9.1
All items less food, energy	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	2.3
Comm. less food, energy	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	2.1
New vehicles	.0	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	.0	0.6	0.2	2.5
Used cars and trucks	-0.6	-0.6	-0.1	-0.9	-1.0	-0.2	1.3	3.2
Apparel	-1.1	0.4	0.6	-0.1	0.9	-0.9	0.5	4.9
Medical care	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.4	3.3
Services less energy	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	2.3
Shelter	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	2.1
Transportation	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.1	.0	-0.2	0.3	1.4
Medical care	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	.0	0.3	3.5

The US Labor Department will release April 2012 Consumer Price Index information on May 15, 2012 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Current and historic CPI data is used as the core data for the US Inflation Calculator.

US Inflation Rate Remains at 2.9%, but Consumer Prices Jump 0.4% in February 2012

admin — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 17:21:27 +0000

While the annual percentage rate remained unchanged, US inflation climbed sharply in February as soaring gasoline costs drove the biggest monthly increase in consumer prices since April 2011.

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in February after an increase of 0.2 percent in January, the US government reported today in Washington. The cost of food was actually flat last month, marking the first time food prices have not advanced since July 2010. But energy prices surged in February as prices at the pump jumped 6.0 percent.

"The gasoline index rose sharply in February, accounting for over 80 percent of the change in the all items index. The gasoline increase led to a 3.2 percent rise in the energy index despite a decline in the index for natural gas," the US Labor Department said in its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which is the government’s key measure of US inflation.

"The food index was unchanged in February, with the food at home index unchanged for the second month in a row as major grocery store food indexes were mixed."

Stripping out food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile, the so-called core US inflation rate rose 0.1 percent in February after rising 0.2 percent in January. Many economists had expected a reading of 0.2 percent.

"Inflationary pressures remain minimal. There is no indication that higher energy prices are leading to price increases for other goods, and in fact inflation outside of food and energy is slowing," PNC Financial economist Gus Faucher said according to USA TODAY.

"Firms are trying to hold the line on price increases given still-soft demand, and weak wage growth and high profit margins give them flexibility."

US inflation rose 2.9 percent in the last 12 months, equaling the same pace ending in January. The annual rate was at 3.9 percent as recently as September.

The core US inflation rate rose 2.2 percent over the past year after climbing 2.3 percent in January which had been the biggest 12-month increase since September 2008. The amount continues to be a bit higher than the Fed’s 2.0 percent target, although that is seen as temporary according to the latest FOMC statement released on Tuesday.

"Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable," stated the Fed’s FOMC statement for February which was released on March 13.

"The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate," the statement added.

Some, not all, economists agree.

"Despite the spike in energy prices, which should have only temporary effects on CPI inflation, the downward trajectory for consumer price inflation remains largely intact," Reuters quoted Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities in New York.

"We expect the benign inflationary backdrop and weak pace of slack absorption the economy to provide a supportive environment for monetary policy," he added

The following table provides US Labor Department inflation data ranging from August to February and on a 12-month basis.

February 2012 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent)

	Aug 2011	Sept 2011	Oct 2011	Nov 2011	Dec 2011	Jan 2012	Feb 2012	12 Month
All items	0.4	0.3	-0.1	.0	.0	0.2	0.4	2.9
Food	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	.0	3.9
Food at home	0.6	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.3	.0	.0	4.5
Food away from home	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.1	3.1
Energy	1.2	2.0	-2.0	-1.6	-1.3	0.2	3.2	7.0
Energy commodities	1.6	2.7	-2.9	-2.1	-1.9	0.9	5.7	12.4
Gasoline (all types)	1.9	2.9	-3.1	-2.4	-2.0	0.9	6.0	12.6
Fuel oil	-0.4	-0.7	-0.5	2.7	-1.0	1.4	2.8	8.9
Energy services	0.4	0.7	-0.4	-0.7	-0.3	-0.8	-0.8	-1.0
Electricity	-0.1	0.7	0.4	0.4	-0.2	.0	.0	1.9
Utility (piped) gas service	2.2	0.8	-3.0	-4.4	-0.8	-2.9	-3.4	-9.8
All items less food, energy	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	2.2
Comm. less food, energy	0.4	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.2	0.2	0.1	2.0
New vehicles	.0	.0	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	.0	0.6	3.0
Used cars and trucks	0.9	-0.6	-0.6	-0.1	-0.9	-1.0	-0.2	2.9
Apparel	1.1	-1.1	0.4	0.6	-0.1	0.9	-0.9	4.2
Medical care	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.8	3.3
Services less energy	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	2.2
Shelter	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	2.0
Transportation	0.2	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.1	.0	-0.2	1.6
Medical care	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	.0	3.1

The US Labor Department will publish March 2012 Consumer Price Index information on April 13, 2012 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Current and historic CPI data is used as the core data for the US Inflation Calculator.

US Inflation Hits 2.9% on 12-Month Basis, Consumer Prices Climb 0.2% in January 2012

admin — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 01:25:36 +0000

US inflation ticked higher in January as Americans paid more at the pump for the first time in four months, government data released on Friday revealed. However, consumer prices dipped a bit over the past year as compared to the previous 12-months ending in December.

Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in January, marking the biggest jump since September and coming on the heels of two straight flat monthly readings.

Food and energy costs are among the items that drove US inflation higher as both of the government-watched indexes advanced 0.2 percent in January. The increase for food actually matched the previous month. However, energy prices tumbled 1.3 percent in December and the change into January accounted for a more noticeable burden on the wallet. Advances occurred in other areas as well, the government noted.

"The apparel index rose sharply, and the indexes for shelter, recreation, medical care, and tobacco increased as well," the US Labor Department said in its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which is seen as the government’s key barometer for US inflation.

On the flip side, consumers paid less for used cars and trucks and for airline fares.

Stripping out the more volatile energy and food categories, the so-called core US inflation rate also increased 0.2 percent in January after advancing 0.1 percent in December.

Over the past 12 months, US inflation was up 2.9 percent after the reported 3.0 percent gain in December. The latest increase was the smallest year-to-year advance since March 2011 and contrasts starkly against the 3.8 percent annual rate in September 2011.

The core US inflation rate rose 2.3 percent over the past year for the biggest increase since September 2008. The same 12-month reading in December was at 2.2 percent. The level can affect US monetary policy and remains higher than the Fed’s 2.0 percent target. It is also in somewhat of a conflict with recent Fed thinking.

"Inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable," stated the Fed’s FOMC statement for January which was released on February 15. "The Committee also anticipates that over coming quarters, inflation will run at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate," it added.

The following table provides US Labor Department inflation data ranging from July to January and on a 12-month basis.

January 2012 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent)

	July 2011	Aug 2011	Sept 2011	Oct 2011	Nov 2011	Dec 2011	Jan 2012	12 Month
All items	0.5	0.4	0.3	-0.1	.0	.0	0.2	2.9
Food	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	4.4
Food at home	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.3	.0	5.3
Food away from home	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	3.1
Energy	2.8	1.2	2.0	-2.0	-1.6	-1.3	0.2	6.1
Energy commodities	4.3	1.6	2.7	-2.9	-2.1	-1.9	0.9	10.0
Gasoline (all types)	4.7	1.9	2.9	-3.1	-2.4	-2.0	0.9	9.7
Fuel oil	-1.7	-0.4	-0.7	-0.5	2.7	-1.0	1.4	12.1
Energy services	0.4	0.4	0.7	-0.4	-0.7	-0.3	-0.8	0.5
Electricity	0.8	-0.1	0.7	0.4	0.4	-0.2	.0	2.4
Utility (piped) gas service	-1.2	2.2	0.8	-3.0	-4.4	-0.8	-2.9	-5.5
All items less food, energy	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	2.3
Comm. less food, energy	0.3	0.4	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.2	0.2	2.2
New vehicles	.0	.0	.0	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	.0	3.2
Used cars and trucks	0.7	0.9	-0.6	-0.6	-0.1	-0.9	-1.0	3.2
Apparel	1.2	1.1	-1.1	0.4	0.6	-0.1	0.9	4.7
Medical care	.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.6	3.2
Services less energy	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	2.3
Shelter	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	2.0
Transportation	-0.1	0.2	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.1	.0	2.1
Medical care	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	3.7

The US Labor Department will publish February 2012 Consumer Price Index information on March 16, 2012 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Current and historic CPI data is used as the core data for the US Inflation Calculator.

US Inflation at 3%, Consumer Prices Unchanged in December 2011

admin — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 22:10:48 +0000

US inflation eased as consumer prices remained in check last month, the US government said Thursday in Washington. While Americans paid more for food, housing and transportation, cheaper energy costs offset the increases.

Consumer prices were flat in December for a second straight month following advances of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.4 percent in October, September, and August.

"Similar to last month, the energy index declined in December and offset increases in other indexes. The gasoline index declined for the third month in a row and the household energy index declined as well," the US Labor Department said in its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which is seen as the government’s key barometer for US inflation. "The food index rose in December, with the index for food at home turning up after declining last month," the bureau added.

Food prices rose quicker than any other government watched items in December. Home food costs jumped 0.3 percent after falling 0.1 percent in November. The overall food index gained 0.2 percent against the previous 0.1 percent, and it is up 4.7 percent over the year.

The game-changer since October has been falling energy prices, led by gasoline. Prices at the pump were down 2.0 percent last month following previous monthly dips of 2.4 and 3.1 percent. Gasoline had surged 2.9 percent as recently as September, and Americans are still paying 9.9 percent more to fill up their cars as compared to one year ago.

Speaking of cars, new vehicle prices have declined for three straight months while used car prices have dipped for four. Clothing prices are also lower by 0.1 percent after two previous monthly increases.

"Inflation pressures are easing, with sharp drops in energy, vehicle and consumer goods prices," said Chris Christopher, senior economist at IHS Global Insight, according to MarketWatch. "During the holiday season many chain store retailers offered heavy discounts in order to get shoppers to open their wallets."

Stripping out the more volatile food and energy items, the so-called core US inflation rate rose 0.1 percent in December after advancing 0.2 percent in November and registering matching increases of 0.1 percent in October and September.

US inflation picked up 3.0 percent in the 12 months ending December after climbing 3.4 percent in November and surging 3.5 and 3.9 percent in each of the year-over-year increases ending October and September. Yet, the annual inflation rate was at 1.5 percent just one year ago.

The core US inflation rate rose 2.2 percent from December 2011 which equaled the margin in November and remains the highest since October 2008 when the rate was 2.5 percent. Prior increases included 2.1 percent for October and 2.0 percent for September. The 12-month core inflation rate is closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The level remains above the Fed’s target range which is not officially stated but often cited from 1.5 to 2.0 percent.

"We already know that gas prices are starting to go back up in January, so I think a lot of analysts are mistakenly looking at the trend in headline inflation and seeing relief there," CNNMoney.com quoted Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

The following table provides US Labor Department inflation data ranging from June to December and on a 12-month basis.

December 2011 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent)

	June 2011	July 2011	Aug 2011	Sept 2011	Oct 2011	Nov 2011	Dec 2011	12 Month
All items	-0.2	0.5	0.4	0.3	-0.1	.0	.0	3.0
Food	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.2	4.7
Food at home	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.3	6.0
Food away from home	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	2.9
Energy	-4.4	2.8	1.2	2.0	-2.0	-1.6	-1.3	6.6
Energy commodities	-6.3	4.3	1.6	2.7	-2.9	-2.1	-1.9	10.6
Gasoline (all types)	-6.8	4.7	1.9	2.9	-3.1	-2.4	-2.0	9.9
Fuel oil	-2.2	-1.7	-0.4	-0.7	-0.5	2.7	-1.0	18.0
Energy services	-1.1	0.4	0.4	0.7	-0.4	-0.7	-0.3	0.8
Electricity	-1.6	0.8	-0.1	0.7	0.4	0.4	-0.2	2.2
Utility (piped) gas service	0.4	-1.2	2.2	0.8	-3.0	-4.4	-0.8	-3.7
All items less food, energy	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	2.2
Comm. less food, energy	0.5	0.3	0.4	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.2	2.2
New vehicles	0.6	.0	.0	.0	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	3.2
Used cars and trucks	1.6	0.7	0.9	-0.6	-0.6	-0.1	-0.9	4.0
Apparel	1.4	1.2	1.1	-1.1	0.4	0.6	-0.1	4.6
Medical care	-0.1	.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	3.2
Services less energy	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	2.3
Shelter	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	1.9
Transportation	-0.3	-0.1	0.2	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.1	2.5
Medical care	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	3.6

The US Labor Department will publish January 2012 Consumer Price Index information on February 17, 2012 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Current and historic CPI data is used as the core data for the US Inflation Calculator.

US Inflation Lessens as Consumer Prices Remain Flat in November 2011

admin — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 20:40:37 +0000

After surging earlier in 2011, US inflation has trended lower in recent months, inflation data released Friday by the US government highlights. Consumer prices were flat in November as food prices cooled and American’s paid less for gasoline which offset higher costs in other items like shelter, medical care, and clothing.

Consumer prices were unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.1 percent in October. Increases of 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5 percent had been reported by the bureau for the respective months of September, August and July. Falling energy prices have been the major catalyst in recent inflation dips.

"The energy index declined for the second month in a row and offset increases in the indexes for food and all items less food and energy," noted the US Labor Department in its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which is seen as the government’s key measure of US inflation. "As in October, the gasoline index fell sharply and the index for household energy declined as well."

Food prices in November were 0.1 percent higher, matching October’s level. Energy prices declined 1.6 percent after falling 2.0 percent previously. Leading declines was a 2.4 percent drop in gasoline prices. Gasoline had fallen 3.1 percent in October following three straight monthly increases.

"The pace of inflation has clearly moderated in recent months, and is expected to continue to ease in the months ahead," wrote Jim Baird, chief investment strategist for Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in a research note cited on CNNMoney.com.

"This is more good news for the consumer. Should inflation continue to moderate, households should feel better about their ability to spend a bit more freely," he added.

Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core US inflation rate advanced 0.2 percent in November after monthly advances of 0.1 percent in October and September. The level was the biggest increase since August. None of the major core consumer goods and services tracked by the US Labor Department registered directional changes, but increases were moderated.

Used car prices fell 0.1 percent against the previous 0.1
Clothing costs rose 0.6 percent versus 0.4
Medical car went up 0.2 percent against 0.3

New car prices declined 0.3 percent for a second straight month and the cost of shelter was 0.2 percent higher, also matching the previous month.

US inflation climbed 3.4 percent in the 12 months ending November after advancing 3.5 and 3.9 percent in each of the year-over-year increases ending October and September. The annual inflation rate was at 1.1 percent one year ago and registered a record low of 0.6 percent in October 2010.

"If you look at the headline number, you’ll see it’s been undermined over the last two months by a significant drop in energy prices. But this decline is not sustainable. Oil prices are back around $100 a barrel now, so it suggests we’re likely to see a rebound," Reuters noted Michael Woolfolk, Senior Currency Strategist at BYN Mellon.

"More troubling is the persistent rise in core inflation, which surprised to the upside. We’ve been ignoring headline inflation because of the volatility of food and energy prices, but if they remain high, they will drag core higher."

The core US inflation rate rose 2.2 percent from November 2011, after increases of 2.1 percent in October and 2.0 percent in September and August. The level is the highest since October 2008. This longer term core inflation index is the one most closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The core index edged a bit higher yet again over the Fed’s target range which is not officially stated but often cited from 1.5 to 2.0 percent.

US Labor Department inflation data from May through to November and on a 12-month basis follows:

November 2011 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent)

	May 2011	June 2011	July 2011	Aug 2011	Sept 2011	Oct 2011	Nov 2011	12 Month
All items	0.2	-0.2	0.5	0.4	0.3	-0.1	.0	3.4
Food	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.1	4.6
Food at home	0.5	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.1	-0.1	5.9
Food away from home	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.3	2.9
Energy	-1.0	-4.4	2.8	1.2	2.0	-2.0	-1.6	12.4
Energy commodities	-1.9	-6.3	4.3	1.6	2.7	-2.9	-2.1	19.9
Gasoline (all types)	-2.0	-6.8	4.7	1.9	2.9	-3.1	-2.4	19.7
Fuel oil	-0.8	-2.2	-1.7	-0.4	-0.7	-0.5	2.7	25.0
Energy services	0.6	-1.1	0.4	0.4	0.7	-0.4	-0.7	1.7
Electricity	0.8	-1.6	0.8	-0.1	0.7	0.4	0.4	2.7
Utility (piped) gas service	-0.3	0.4	-1.2	2.2	0.8	-3.0	-4.4	-1.3
All items less food, energy	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	2.2
Comm. less food, energy	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.4	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	2.2
New vehicles	1.1	0.6	.0	.0	.0	-0.3	-0.3	3.3
Used cars and trucks	1.1	1.6	0.7	0.9	-0.6	-0.6	-0.1	4.9
Apparel	1.2	1.4	1.2	1.1	-1.1	0.4	0.6	4.8
Medical care	.0	-0.1	.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	3.1
Services less energy	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	2.1
Shelter	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	1.8
Transportation	0.1	-0.3	-0.1	0.2	0.5	0.1	0.1	2.6
Medical care	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.5	3.5

The US Labor Department will publish the December 2011 Consumer Price Index information on January 19, 2012 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Current and historic CPI data is used as the core data for the US Inflation Calculator.

US Inflation Slows as Consumer Prices Dip 0.1% in October 2011

admin — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 19:14:42 +0000

Consumer prices retreated in October 2011 for the first time in four months as Americans paid less for gasoline, cars and other items. The decline trimmed the annual US inflation rate by four points from the previous 12-month reading which had marked the biggest increase in three years.

The US Labor Department on Wednesday said consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in October after rising 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5 percent in the respective months of September, August and July. Consumer prices last dipped on a monthly basis in June (by 0.2 percent) due to sharply lower energy costs. The catalyst for October’s decrease was markedly the same.

"A decline in the energy index more than offset small increases in the indexes for food" and other items to create the decrease, noted the US Labor Department in its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which is seen as the government’s main gauge for US inflation.

"The energy index turned down in October after increasing in each of the three previous months as the gasoline and household energy indexes declined after a series of seasonally adjusted increases. The food index rose in October, but posted its smallest increase of the year as the fruits and vegetables index declined sharply," the US Labor Department explained.

Food prices in October edged 0.1 percent higher following a pick-up of 0.4 percent in September. Energy prices fell 2.0 percent after rising 2.0 previously. Leading declines was a 3.1 percent drop in gasoline. As a comparison, prices at the pump jumped 2.9 percent in the previous month.

The CPI picture is not all rosy, however. Despite the latest drop in gasoline prices, they are still painfully 23.5 percent higher than a year ago. And on a further sour note, crude oil on Wednesday hit $100 per barrel for the first time since July. Oil prices were in the $75 area as early as October.

Stripping out volatile energy and food prices, core US inflation in October advanced 0.1 percent for a second straight month — the smallest gains this year. Among core consumer goods and services to see directional changes:

New car prices fell 0.3 percent versus an unchanged reading in September, and
Clothing costs rose 0.3 percent against the previous 1.1 percent decline

Used car prices declined 0.6 percent, matching the previous month. Accelerated prices in October included shelter (+0.2 percent vs. +0.1 percent) and medical care (+0.5 vs. +0.2 percent).

US inflation rose 3.5 percent in the 12 months ending in October after advancing 3.9 and 3.8 percent in each of the year-over-year gains ending in September and August. The annual rate was at 1.1 percent as recently as last November and registered a record low of 0.6 percent in October 2010.

The core US inflation rate over the past year rose 2.1 percent, up from the 2.0 percent increases reported in September and August. The longer term core inflation index is the one most watched by the Federal Reserve. The core index stands a bit above the Fed’s target range which is often cited from 1.5 to 2.0 percent. Most analysts are not, at least yet, voicing concerns.

"The inflation outlook is pretty benign," Bloomberg quoted Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, who correctly projected the CPI decline. "The fact that recent higher readings are moderating certainly speaks well to the Fed’s accommodative policy."

US Labor Department inflation data on a 12-month basis and between April and October follows:

October 2011 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent)

	Apr 2011	May 2011	June 2011	July 2011	Aug 2011	Sept 2011	Oct 2011	12 Month
All items	0.4	0.2	-0.2	0.5	0.4	0.3	-0.1	3.5
Food	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	4.7
Food at home	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.1	6.2
Food away from home	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.2	2.7
Energy	2.2	-1.0	-4.4	2.8	1.2	2.0	-2.0	14.2
Energy commodities	3.1	-1.9	-6.3	4.3	1.6	2.7	-2.9	23.4
Gasoline (all types)	3.3	-2.0	-6.8	4.7	1.9	2.9	-3.1	23.5
Fuel oil	3.2	-0.8	-2.2	-1.7	-0.4	-0.7	-0.5	26.8
Energy services	0.6	0.6	-1.1	0.4	0.4	0.7	-0.4	1.7
Electricity	0.2	0.8	-1.6	0.8	-0.1	0.7	0.4	2.9
Utility (piped) gas service	1.9	-0.3	0.4	-1.2	2.2	0.8	-3.0	-2.2
All items less food, energy	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	2.1
Comm. less food, energy	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.4	-0.2	-0.1	2.1
New vehicles	0.7	1.1	0.6	.0	.0	.0	-0.3	3.4
Used cars and trucks	1.2	1.1	1.6	0.7	0.9	-0.6	-0.6	5.2
Apparel	0.2	1.2	1.4	1.2	1.1	-1.1	0.4	4.2
Medical care	0.5	.0	-0.1	.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	3.1
Services less energy	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	2.1
Shelter	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	1.8
Transportation	0.2	0.1	-0.3	-0.1	0.2	0.5	0.1	3.0
Medical care	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.5	3.1

The US Labor Department will release the November 2011 Consumer Price Index data on December 16, 2011 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Current and historic CPI files are used as the core data for the US Inflation Calculator.

US Inflation Advances as Consumer Prices Rise 0.3% in September 2011

admin — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 18:00:07 +0000

US inflation in September 2011 calmed ever-so-slightly when compared against the previous month — a second straight month of modest taming. But American consumers continued to hand out larger sums of money to pay for their routine purchases. Worse, US inflation on an annual basis marked its biggest increase in 3 years, imparting a remindful and painful pull on consumers’ wallets.

Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in September after rising 0.4 percent in August and jumping 0.5 percent in July, according to a US government report released Wednesday morning. The increase was mostly in line with economists’ expectations, and led by higher energy and food prices.

Increases in energy and food indexes were the main cause of the seasonally adjusted all items increase," noted the US Labor Department in its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. "The gasoline index continued to rise, and indexes for electricity and natural gas increased as well. Broad increases in food indexes also continued in September, with the food at home index rising 0.6 percent for the third month in a row and no major grocery store food group indexes declining."

Per the numbers, the department said energy prices rose 2.0 percent in September, which was up from the 1.2 percent increase in the previous month. Prices at the pump impacted consumers most as the cost of gasoline was 2.9 percent higher versus the prior 1.9 percent increase. Gasoline prices have soared 33.3 percent over the past 12 months.

The core US inflation rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, advanced 0.1 percent in September, down from the 0.2 percent increase seen during each of the previous two months. The level was the smallest gain since March and a bit under expectations. Core consumer goods and services to climb higher included gains of:

0.2 percent for medical care services
0.1 percent for shelter
0.5 percent for transportation

The Labor Department noted that the indexes for airline fares, tobacco, and personal care also increased. However, the cost of clothing declined 1.1 percent — the biggest fall since 1998, after rising sharply for five straight months. Used car prices were down 0.6 percent as well after having advanced in all months but January. New vehicle prices were flat for a third consecutive month.

US inflation rose 3.9 percent in the 12 months ending in September following a previous reading of 3.8 and then 3.6 percent rates in each of the year-over-year gains ending in May, June and July. The annual rate was at 1.1 percent as recently as November and registered a record low of 0.6 percent in October 2010.

The 12-month core rate remained at 2.0 percent — matching the previous setting which was the biggest in nearly three years. The longer term core inflation index is the one most watched by the Federal Reserve. The core index stands at the top of the Fed’s target range which is often cited from 1.5 to 2.0 percent.

"The headline data, it appeared to be pretty much on target. Our response is that we are seeing inflation pressure slowly build up in the economy," Reuters quoted Fred Dickson, Chief Market Strategist at D.A. Davidson & Company in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

"While the (monthly) core rate was only up 0.1 percent, it still has pushed the core level up to 2 percent which is at the top end of the Fed’s targeted zone for no action. So the economy has basically strengthened to the point where we are seeing companies pass along inflation increases and at some point the Fed has to take notice of what is happening in terms of inflation."

US Labor Department inflation data on a 12-month basis and between March and September follows:

September 2011 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent)

	Mar 2011	Apr 2011	May 2011	June 2011	July 2011	Aug 2011	Sept 2011	12 Month
All items	0.5	0.4	0.2	-0.2	0.5	0.4	0.3	3.9
Food	0.8	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.4	4.7
Food at home	1.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.6	6.3
Food away from home	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.2	2.6
Energy	3.5	2.2	-1.0	-4.4	2.8	1.2	2.0	19.3
Energy commodities	5.5	3.1	-1.9	-6.3	4.3	1.6	2.7	32.8
Gasoline (all types)	5.6	3.3	-2.0	-6.8	4.7	1.9	2.9	33.3
Fuel oil	6.2	3.2	-0.8	-2.2	-1.7	-0.4	-0.7	33.4
Energy services	0.2	0.6	0.6	-1.1	0.4	0.4	0.7	2.1
Electricity	0.7	0.2	0.8	-1.6	0.8	-0.1	0.7	2.7
Utility (piped) gas service	-1.4	1.9	-0.3	0.4	-1.2	2.2	0.8	0.2
All items less food, energy	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.0
Comm. less food, energy	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.4	-0.2	2.0
New vehicles	0.7	0.7	1.1	0.6	.0	.0	.0	3.6
Used cars and trucks	0.8	1.2	1.1	1.6	0.7	0.9	-0.6	5.1
Apparel	-0.5	0.2	1.2	1.4	1.2	1.1	-1.1	3.5
Medical care	0.5	0.5	.0	-0.1	.0	0.1	0.2	3.0
Services less energy	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	2.0
Shelter	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	1.7
Transportation	0.5	0.2	0.1	-0.3	-0.1	0.2	0.5	3.2
Medical care	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	2.8

The US Labor Department has scheduled the October 2011 Consumer Price Index data release for November 16, 2011 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Current and historic CPI files are used as the core data in the Inflation Calculator.

US Inflation Rises 3.8% on 12-Month Basis, Consumer Prices Advance 0.4% in August 2011

admin — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 17:12:33 +0000

Although the US inflation rate cooled a bit in August 2011 when compared against July 2011, consumer prices advanced for the month as Americans paid more than expected for goods and services. At the same time, US inflation over the past 12 months not only increased but the more closely watched core rate was the highest since November 2008.

The US Labor Department said consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August after surging 0.5 percent in July. The increase was double the level of what many analysts’ expected. While gasoline prices rose at a more modest 1.9 percent rate in August versus the 4.7 percent jump in the previous month, food prices ticked up 0.5 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in July.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week said rising commodity prices had lifted inflation, but continued his and the Reserve’s stance that it would moderate over the coming months.

"Higher gasoline and food prices translated directly into increased inflation for consumers, and in some cases producers of other goods and services were able to pass through their higher costs to their customers as well. In addition, the global supply disruptions associated with the disaster in Japan put upward pressure on motor vehicle prices. As a result of these influences, inflation picked up significantly; over the first half of this year, " Bernanke said September 8 in a speech at the Economic Club of Minnesota.

"However, inflation is expected to moderate in the coming quarters as these transitory influences wane. In particular, the prices of oil and many other commodities have either leveled off or have come down from their highs. Meanwhile, the step-up in automobile production should reduce pressure on car prices. Importantly, we see little indication that the higher rate of inflation experienced so far this year has become ingrained in the economy."

The core US inflation rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by an expected 0.2 percent in August to match the prior month. Core consumer goods and services that advanced include gains of:

1.1 percent for clothes,
0.9 percent for used cars,
1.1 percent for airline fares,
0.5 percent for tobacco,
0.3 percent for medical care services and
0.2 percent for both shelter and transportation.

US inflation rose 3.8 percent in the 12 months ending in August after having climbed 3.6 percent in each of the year-over-year gains ending in May, June and July. The level was at 1.1 percent as recently as November and hit a record low of 0.6 percent in October 2010.

"The 12-month change in the all items index edged up to 3.8 percent after holding at 3.6 percent for three months, while the 12-month change for all items less food and energy reached 2.0 percent for the first time since November 2008," the US Labor Department said in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. "The energy index has risen 18.4 percent over the last year, while the food index has increased 4.6 percent."

The 12-month core rate of 2.0 percent — the biggest in nearly three years, compares to the 1.8 percent reading in the previous month. The longer term core inflation index is the one most watched by the Federal Reserve. The core index stands at the top of the Fed’s target range which is often cited from 1.5 to 2.0 percent.

“The continued rise in inflation in August is another reason to suspect that the Fed will shy away from a further round of quantitative easing for the time being, even though the incoming data on the real economy continues to disappoint,” CNNMoney.com quoted Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics.

US Labor Department inflation data on a 12-month basis and between February and August follows:

August 2011 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent)

	Feb 2011	Mar 2011	Apr 2011	May 2011	June 2011	July 2011	Aug 2011	12 Month
All items	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	-0.2	0.5	0.4	3.8
Food	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.5	4.6
Food at home	0.8	1.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.6	0.6	6.0
Food away from home	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	2.7
Energy	3.4	3.5	2.2	-1.0	-4.4	2.8	1.2	18.4
Energy commodities	4.8	5.5	3.1	-1.9	-6.3	4.3	1.6	32.1
Gasoline (all types)	4.7	5.6	3.3	-2.0	-6.8	4.7	1.9	32.4
Fuel oil	5.8	6.2	3.2	-0.8	-2.2	-1.7	-0.4	35.4
Energy services	1.1	0.2	0.6	0.6	-1.1	0.4	0.4	1.0
Electricity	0.4	0.7	0.2	0.8	-1.6	0.8	-0.1	1.9
Utility (piped) gas service	3.4	-1.4	1.9	-0.3	0.4	-1.2	2.2	-2.0
All items less food, energy	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	2.0
Comm. less food, energy	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.4	2.1
New vehicles	1.0	0.7	0.7	1.1	0.6	.0	.0	3.8
Used cars and trucks	0.1	0.8	1.2	1.1	1.6	0.7	0.9	5.4
Apparel	-0.9	-0.5	0.2	1.2	1.4	1.2	1.1	4.2
Medical care	0.7	0.5	0.5	.0	-0.1	.0	0.1	3.0
Services less energy	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	1.9
Shelter	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.6
Transportation	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	-0.3	-0.1	0.2	3.1
Medical care	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	3.3

The US Labor Department has scheduled the September 2011 Consumer Price Index release for October 19, 2011 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Current and historic CPI files are used as the core data in the US Inflation Calculator.

US Inflation Rate Continues at 3.6%, Consumer Prices Jump 0.5% in July 2011

admin — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 18:24:38 +0000

The American cost of living jumped in July 2011 by the most in four months, according to the latest US inflation data released by the government.

Consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in July, led by higher food and energy prices. The US Labor Department on Thursday reported the higher-than-expected level, which was more than twice the rate some economists’ expected and markedly higher than June’s 0.2 percent decline when energy costs had retreated.

"The gasoline index rebounded from previous declines and rose sharply in July, accounting for about half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The food at home index accelerated in July and also contributed to the increase, as dairy and fruit indexes posted notable increases and five of the six major grocery store food groups rose," the US Labor Department said Thursday in its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Energy prices increased 2.8 percent in July after a 4.4 percent drop in June and a 1.0 percent drop in May. Food prices rose 0.4 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in the prior month and a matching 0.4 percent increase in May.

The so-called core US inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.2 percent in July after two straight months of 0.3 percent increases. Core price advances included 1.2 percent for clothes, 0.7 percent for used cars, and 0.3 percent for both shelter and medical care.

The CPI report is "showing some continued firmness in prices," Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, was quoted on Bloomberg. "There’s not a lot of improvement in the labor market, and given what’s going on with economic growth, pricing power should weaken further. Ultimately, inflation will moderate, but in the meantime, it remains frustratingly high."

US inflation rose 3.6 percent in the 12 months ending July, matching the year-over-year gain in June and in May. The 12-month core CPI climbed 1.8 percent in July as compared to the 1.6 percent increase in June and the 1.5 percent increase in May.

US Labor Department inflation data on a 12-month basis and between January and July follows:

July 2011 Consumer Prices – Gains (percent )

	Jan 2011	Feb 2011	Mar 2011	Apr 2011	May 2011	June 2011	July 2011	12 Month
All items	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	-0.2	0.5	3.6
Food	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.4	4.2
Food at home	0.7	0.8	1.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.6	5.4
Food away from home	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	2.6
Energy	2.1	3.4	3.5	2.2	-1.0	-4.4	2.8	19.0
Energy commodities	4.0	4.8	5.5	3.1	-1.9	-6.3	4.3	33.3
Gasoline (all types)	3.5	4.7	5.6	3.3	-2.0	-6.8	4.7	33.6
Fuel oil	6.8	5.8	6.2	3.2	-0.8	-2.2	-1.7	37.2
Energy services	-0.6	1.1	0.2	0.6	0.6	-1.1	0.4	0.9
Electricity	-0.5	0.4	0.7	0.2	0.8	-1.6	0.8	2.0
Utility (piped) gas service	-1.2	3.4	-1.4	1.9	-0.3	0.4	-1.2	-2.8
All items less food, energy	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	1.8
Comm. less food, energy	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.3	1.8
New vehicles	-0.1	1.0	0.7	0.7	1.1	0.6	.0	4.0
Used cars and trucks	-0.3	0.1	0.8	1.2	1.1	1.6	0.7	5.3
Apparel	1.0	-0.9	-0.5	0.2	1.2	1.4	1.2	3.1
Medical care	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.5	.0	-0.1	.0	3.2
Services less energy	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	1.7
Shelter	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	1.4
Transportation	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	-0.3	-0.1	2.9
Medical care	-0.1	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	3.2

The Labor Department will release the next round of Consumer Price Index statistics for August 2011 on September 15, 2011 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. The CPI data is used as the core engine for the Inflation Calculator.