Over the past few months, consumer price hikes in the United States have consistently outpaced expectations. In March, mirroring February’s pattern, increases in shelter and gasoline costs notably fueled inflation.
"The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items," the Labor Department’s monthly report said.
In the headline figure for the month, U.S. consumer prices rose by 0.4%, matching February’s rate, the Labor Department said April 10 in its monthly report on the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The CPI is a closely watched inflation gauge that measures what American consumers pay for everyday items, ranging from clothing to cars. The widely reported consensus for the month indicated a 0.3% increase.
Overall, food prices climbed 0.1% in March, having remained unchanged in February. Within the food category, grocery prices held steady for a second consecutive month, while dining-out expenses rose by 0.3% after a 0.1% increase in February.
Meanwhile, over the past year, food inflation continued at a rate of 2.2% for a second straight time. During this period, grocery prices experienced a rise of 1.2%, while dining-out costs increased by 4.2%. These numbers contrast with their previous rates of increase, which were 1% for groceries and 4.5% for dining out.
In other sectors, there was a 1.7% increase in pump prices in March, contrasting with the previous month’s 3.8% surge. Comparing year-on-year, gas prices saw a 1.3% rise, compared to the previous 3.9% decline.
The broader energy index, which includes items like gasoline, electricity, and fuel oil, rose by 1.1% in March, following a 2.3% rise in February. Energy prices year-over-year increased by 2.1%, which compares to the previously recorded decline of 1.9%.
Excluding volatile food and energy components, the rate of core consumer prices increased by 0.4% in March for the third consecutive month, surpassing the expected increase of 0.3%.
Shelter or housing prices increased by 0.4% for the second month, marking their 47th consecutive monthly rise. This also represents a second straight and significant year-over-year increase of 5.7%. Recent 12-month comparisons show gains of 6% in January, 6.2% in December, 6.5% in November, 6.7% in October, 7.2% in September, 7.3% in August, 7.7% in July, 7.8% in June, 8% in May, 8.1% in April, and 8.2% in March, which was their most significant annual increase since June 1982.
Components of shelter include prices of items like rent for apartments, rental equivalence, lodging away from home such as hotels and motels, and housing at schools. This index accounts for about one-third of the entire CPI.
In other closely watched pricing areas:
- Clothing prices increased by 0.7% for the month after rising by 0.6% previously. They advanced 0.4% from a year ago.
- New vehicle prices declined by 0.2% in March after falling by 0.1%. They showed a year-over-year decline of 0.1%.
- Prices for used cars and trucks fell by 1.1% during the month, after rising by 0.5% previously. In comparison to prices from a year ago, they have dropped by 2.2%.
- When compared to the previous year, airline fares fell by 7.1%. As for the month, they decline by 0.4% following a 3.6% increase.
In terms of the headline annual rate, inflation rose by 3.5% for the 12 months ending March, up from the 3.2% inflation rate reported for the annual period ending in February and the highest since September. Commonly reported expectations for the period indicated an advance of 3.4%.
For some perspective, there was a notable peak in the inflation rate at 9.1% during the 12-month period ending in June 2022. It was the quickest rate of inflation since November 1981. Additionally, until March 2023, inflation rates had been at or above 6% for 17 consecutive months.
Meanwhile, core inflation increased 3.8% in the year through March, unchanged from the prior month. The widely reported consensus was a 3.7% annual increase. This core, "all items less food and energy" index is one of the benchmark inflation rates monitored by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to guide the central bank in setting its key interest rate.
"There’s not much you can point to that this is going to result in a shift away from the hawkish bent” from Fed officials," CNBC quoted Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. "June to me is definitely off the table" for any rate increase.
As recently as September 2022, the annual core inflation rate at 6.6% was the highest since August 1982. Many economists consider the core reading as a better predictor for future inflation.
The following table of key inflation figures is for the last seven months through March, as published by the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov/cpi) on April 10, 2024. To index the data each month, the BLS monitors the prices of about 80,000 consumer goods and services from around the nation. All monthly and annual pricing changes are in percentages.
September 2023 to March 2024 Consumer Prices – Gains & Losses in Percent
(Seasonally Adjusted from Prior Month and Unadjusted 12-Month)
| Sept 2023 | Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | Dec 2023 | Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | 12 Month | |
| All items | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.5 |
| Food | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 |
| Food at home | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Food away from home | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 4.2 |
| Energy | 1.2 | -2.1 | -1.6 | -0.2 | -0.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Energy commodities | 1.8 | -4.3 | -3.8 | -0.7 | -3.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Gasoline (all types) | 1.6 | -4.3 | -4.0 | -0.6 | -3.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Fuel oil | 6.4 | -6.4 | -1.1 | -3.3 | -4.5 | 1.1 | -1.3 | -3.7 |
| Energy services | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.1 |
| Electricity | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 5.0 |
| Utility (piped) gas service | -1.4 | 0.3 | 1.2 | -0.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | -3.2 |
| All items less food, energy | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.8 |
| Commodities less food, energy | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| New vehicles | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Used cars and trucks | -1.8 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | -3.4 | 0.5 | -1.1 | -2.2 |
| Apparel | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Medical care | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.5 |
| Services less energy | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| Shelter | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 5.7 |
| Transportation | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 10.7 |
| Medical care | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
The BLS releases inflation data around the middle of the month, covering consumer prices surveyed up to the previous month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April and the latest annual period will be made public on May 15, 2024.
The CPI data is also used to calculate inflation rates and power this site’s U.S. Inflation Calculator, which displays the cumulative inflation and the change in the buying power of the U.S. dollar over time.
